Tuesday, December 27, 2011

How have I done with my 2011 Second Life Predictions, and what is in store for 2012?

Gazing into the Second Life Crystal Ball
In January 2011 I made 9 Key Predictions for Second Life and Linden Lab.

Six have come true, and three have not, giving me a success rate of 66%.  You can see how I did below.

What is in store for 2012 you may ask?

You can see my 2012 Predictions here:  Eddi Haskell's Important Second Life Predictions for 2012

You can see other 2012 Predictions about Second Life here by well known bloggers:

Daniel Voyager: Early SL predictions for 2012

Prokofy Neva:  My Predictions for 2012

Ron Blechner (Second Tense): 11 Predictions for 2012 for MMOs, Virtual Worlds, Social Media

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Here are my nine 2011 Predictions - and the eventual outcome as true or false

1. Linden Lab will not be acquired in 2011.   True

2. "Second Life 2.0", although not called as such, will finally launch in 2011.  False  (note:  what I called Second Life 2.0 is a browser-based Second Life which.  Although it was tested in beta, it is not yet available)   

3. Usership of "regular" downloaded Second Life (called just Second Life from now on in these predictions), in terms of both user hours and concurrency (number of people logged on) will increase anywhere from 1% to 15% by year end 2011. Linden Labs will be dissatisfied with these results.    True

4. Second Life will not increase content investment by more than 10% in 2011. True

5. External media references to Second Life will not increase in 2011.  True

6. Second Life will only hire back a token number (under 10) of key employees who were laid off in 2010 and will miss a key opportunity by doing so.  True - although I am estimating this. 

7. Blue Mars, although not surpassing "Second Life" as the most widely visited and populated virtual world, will continue to make inroads in gaining media attention and usership.   False - Blue Mars suspended development  right after I made this prediction. 

8. Blue Mars and Second Life will increasingly be marginally, and not directly competitive through 2011 due to their very distinct approaches to inworld content and activities.  True - although Blue Mars really is not competitive at all with Second Life right now. 

9. The "Open Sim / Open Source" alternative virtual world applications of Second Life technology will not cut into existing Second Life usership numbers to any great degree (more than 5%).  False - I estimate that the impact of alternative open worlds is  a bit greater than 5% on Second Life right now in terms of  land sales and rentals. 


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