Wednesday, September 14, 2011

For Anyone Following The 2012 U.S. Presidential Election -- A Genius Move to Deny Reelection to President Obama

I follow politics.  If Pennsylvania does this, and Michigan and Ohio follow, it makes the 2012 elections a near Republican shoe-in.  You can read about it here.

1 comment:

  1. Here is my analysis on Mother Jones if anyone is interested-

    This, for Republicans, is a dual edged sword.

    Let's say they manage to get this passed in the three Trifecta states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. They will not get this passed in Wisconsin -- the State Senate is hanging Republican by one vote who is voting with the Unions anyway. And the others are scared of recall.

    If this were to have been in place, even with gerrymandered districts. they would have picked up about 20 - 25 at most more electoral votes in 2008, not enough to swing the election.

    Now lets take a look at 2012 -- How are the Republicans going to get the 100 (with redistricting) or so votes they need to get to to win?

    Let's say for the sake of argument, the Republicans take states which were marginal for President Obama the last time --where his margin was under 5%. These states are North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida. I know, they cannot count on Florida, but lets say they win it for the sake of argument. This gets them about halfway there.

    Where do they get the remainder? This leaves Ohio (where Obama won by under 5% as a must -win Republican state. Deny then any of these electoral votes, and it makes things more complicated.
    But lets say they win all of Ohio, and need 30 additional votes to win.

    The equation now changes. The winning of BOTH Florida and Ohio does not guarantee a GOP victory.

    Assuming they can win Virginia, which Obama won by over 5% (with its expanding number of government workers will will be afraid to of Republican layoffs), and Colorado, which Obama won by nearly 9% of the vote, with its angry Latino voters, as key targets for the next 21 electoral votes.

    Where do the next 9 or 10 electoral votes come from for the Republicans? Now this is assuming all their ducks have fallen into place. The next "group" of likely swing states where President Obama's margin was 9 - 10% are Iowa, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Iowa and New Hamphire (which is volatile to a third party, which is a key possibility next time) should get them to 270. Pennsylvania's split votes could get them there too.

    However, a scenario could arise where the Republicans win the Pennsylvania popular vote -- and are denied the election by a handful of electoral votes which then go to the Democrats!

    All other states which are considered "swing" went to President Obama by more than 10% of the vote, and will be hard pickings. They include Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nevada. All three should stay solidly in the Democratic camp unless there is a Republican switch of truly huge proportions.

    You can check my math here:


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